PHIL 115B Exam 1 Prep
(for Fri., Apr. 18)

Know and be able to do anything on HW1 or HW2 or HW3 or in-class quizzes, including but not limited to the following concepts:

• Chapter 1, Basic Concepts
•  1.1 Arguments, Premises, Conclusions
•          Logic
•         Argument
•         Statement
•         Truth value
•         Premises
•         Conclusion
•         Premise/Conclusion Indicator
•         Inference
•         Proposition
•         Aristotle
• 1.2 Recognizing Arguments
•         3 things to look for (p. 23)
•         Explicit and implicit inferential claims
•         10 types of non-arguments
•         Explanations (explanans/explanandum)
•         Conditional statements
•         Antecedent / Sufficient condition
•         Consequent / Necessary condition
• 1.3 Deduction & Induction
•         Deductive / inductive arguments
•         Necessary / probabilistic reasoning
•         3 criteria for distinguishing (p. 31)
•         6-level hierarchy (pp. 36-7)      
•         Deductive / inductive argument forms
•         Syllogism (categorical, hypothetical, disjunctive)
•         Prediction
•         Analogy
•         Generalization
•         Authority
•         Signs
•         Causal Inference
•         Particular / general statements
• 1.4 Validity, Truth, Soundness, Strength, Cogency
•         Valid / invalid deductive argument
•         Sound / unsound deductive argument 
•         Strong / weak inductive argument
•         Cogent / uncogent inductive argument
•         Total evidence requirement
• 1.5 Argument Forms: Proving Invalidity
•         Counterexample Method
•  
• 9    Induction    
•     9.1    Analogy and Legal and Moral Reasoning
•             Form of argument from analogy
•             Primary and secondary analogues
•             6 criteria for strength of analogy
•                 1.    Relevance of similarities
•                 2.    Number of similarities
•                 3.    Nature and degree of disanalogy
•                 4.    Number of primary analogues
•                 5.    Diversity among primary analogues
•                 6.    Specificity of conclusion
•     9.2    Causality and Mill's Methods
•             Necessary and sufficient conditions
•             Method of agreement
•             Method of difference
•             Joint method of agreement and difference
•             Method of residues
•             Method of concomitant variation
•   9.3 Probability
•             Probability and odds
•                 Classical (a priori) theory of probability
•                     Principle of Indifference
•                 Relative frequency theory
•                 Subjectivist theory
•             Simple and compound events
•             Probability calculus
•                 Restricted conjunction rule (independent events)
•                 General conjunction rule
•                 Restricted disjunction rule (mutually exclusive events)
•                 General disjunction rule
•                 Negation rule
•                 Bayes's Theorem
•     9.4 Statistical Reasoning
•             Representative vs. biased sample
•                 Randomness, size of sample, psychological factors
•                 Sampling error
•             3 meanings of "average"
•                 Mean
•                 Median
•                 Mode
•             3 measures of dispersion
•                 Range
•                 Variance
•                 Standard Deviation
•             Normal distribution
•             Graphs and Pictograms
•                     Beware of misleading scales, chopping off axes, incorrect proportions
•             Percentages
•                     Insist on a clear base for comparison
•     9.5 Hypothetical / Scientific Reasoning
•             Hypotheses, explanations, hypothetical reasoning
•             Four stages of the hypothetical method
•                 1.    Occurrence of a problem
•                  2.    Formulating a hypothesis
•                  3.    Drawing implications from the hypothesis
•                   4.    Testing the implications
•             Three additional points
•                     1.    A hypothesis is not derived from evidence but is added
•                     2.    A hypothesis directs the search for evidence
•                     3.     A hypothesis is conclusively disproven if one of its implications is false, but is not conclusively proven if any of its implications are true
•             Empirical and Theoretical Hypotheses
•             Four criteria bearing upon the tentative acceptability of a hypothesis
•                 1.    Adequacy
•                 2.     Internal coherence
•                 3.    External consistency
•                  4.    Fruitfulness
•     9.6 Science & Superstition
•         Evidentiary Support
•                 Anecdotal evidence unreliable
•                 Replicability under controlled conditions
•                 Precision vs. vagueness
•                 Falsifiability and disconfirmability
•                 Ad hoc modifications
•                 Ockham's Razor (simplicity vs. complexity)
•                 Predictions leading to progress
•         Objectivity
•                 Superstition satisfies emotional needs
•                 People are fascinated by the mysterious
•                 Placebo effect
•                 Pareidolia
•                 Gestalt
•                 We see what we expect to see
•                 Autokinetic effect
•                 Hypnagogic & hypnopompic hallucinations
•                 Collective hallucinations
•                 Confabulation
•         Integrity            
•                 Faked evidence (e.g. Uri Geller, fire-walking, cold reading)
•                 Scientists as puzzle solvers
•