Exam 1 Prep

Chapter 1, Basic Concepts

1.1 Arguments, Premises, Conclusions

Logic

Argument

Statement

Truth value

Premises

Conclusion

Premise/Conclusion Indicator

Inference

Proposition

Aristotle

1.2 Recognizing Arguments

3 things to look for (p. 24)

Explicit and implicit inferential claims

10 types of non-arguments

Explanations (explanans/explanandum)

Conditional statements

Antecedent / Sufficient condition

Consequent / Necessary condition

1.3 Deduction & Induction

Deductive / inductive arguments

Necessary / probabilistic reasoning

3 criteria for distinguishing (p. 32)

6-level hierarchy (pp. 37-8)

Deductive / inductive argument forms

Syllogism (categorical, hypothetical, disjunctive)

Prediction

Analogy

Generalization

Authority

Signs

Causal Inference

Particular / general statements

1.4 Validity, Truth, Soundness, Strength, Cogency

Valid / invalid deductive argument

Sound / unsound deductive argument

Strong / weak inductive argument

Cogent / uncogent inductive argument

Total evidence requirement

1.5 Argument Forms: Proving Invalidity

Counterexample Method

9-14 Induction

9 Analogy and Legal and Moral Reasoning

Form of argument from analogy

Primary and secondary analogues

6 criteria for strength of analogy

1. Relevance of similarities

2. Number of similarities

3. Nature and degree of disanalogy

4. Number of primary analogues (be aware of counteranalogy)

5. Diversity among primary analogues

6. Specificity of conclusion

10 Causality and Mill's Methods

Necessary and sufficient conditions

Method of agreement

Method of difference

Joint method of agreement and difference

Method of residues

Method of concomitant variation

11 Probability

Probability and odds

Classical (a priori) theory of probability

Principle of Indifference

Relative frequency theory

Subjectivist theory

Simple and compound events

Probability calculus

Restricted conjunction rule (independent events)

General conjunction rule

Restricted disjunction rule (mutually exclusive events)

General disjunction rule

Negation rule

12 Statistical Reasoning

Representative vs. biased sample

Randomness, size of sample, psychological factors

Sampling error

3 meanings of "average"

Mean

Median

Mode

3 measures of dispersion

Range

Variance

Standard Deviation

Normal distribution

Graphs and Pictograms

Beware of misleading scales, chopping off axes, incorrect proportions

Percentages

Insist on a clear base for comparison

13 Hypothetical / Scientific Reasoning

Hypotheses, explanations, hypothetical reasoning

Four stages of the hypothetical method

1. Occurrence of a problem

2. Formulating a hypothesis

3. Drawing implications from the hypothesis

4. Testing the implications

Three additional points

1. A hypothesis is not derived from evidence but is added

2. A hypothesis directs the search for evidence

3. A hypothesis is conclusively disproven if one of its implications is false, but is not conclusively proven if any of its implications are true

Empirical and Theoretical Hypotheses

Four criteria bearing upon the tentative acceptability of a hypothesis

1. Adequacy

2. Internal coherence

3. External consistency

4. Fruitfulness

14 Science & Superstition

Evidentiary Support

Anecdotal evidence unreliable

Replicability under controlled conditions

Precision vs. vagueness

Falsifiability and disconfirmability

Ad hoc modifications

Ockham's Razor (simplicity vs. complexity)

Predictions leading to progress

Objectivity

Superstition satisfies emotional needs

People are fascinated by the mysterious

Placebo effect

Pareidolia

Gestalt

We see what we expect to see

Autokinetic effect

Hypnagogic & hypnopompic hallucinations

Collective hallucinations

Confabulation

Integrity

Faked evidence (e.g. Uri Geller, fire-walking, cold reading)

Scientists as puzzle solvers